July 23, 2024
The future has not been created yet. It is impossible to predict the future with 100% certaintly. Nonetheless, it's a fun mental exercise to study the past and present to try to predict the future. The art and science of predicting the future entails making algorithmic models based on all known constants and estimated variables. Based on the study of past and present causality (cause and effect), we can make educated guesses about the future. As with anything else in life, the more you practice, the better you may get at the game of predicting the future.
The Time Variable
Interestingly, for some events, time proximity facilitates the prediction while for others it is the opposite. For some events, the closer they are to the present, the easier they are to predict. For other events the farther away they are into the future, the easier they are to predict. For example, if there are no clouds, the clear skies make it easy to predict that it will not rain within the next seconds or even minutes. Now, the farther you go out in time, the harder the prediction becomes. That is, regardless of clear skies at any moment in time, it can rain within hours, days, weeks, months, years, or decades.
Other things are easier to predict, the farther away they are in time. For example, it may be hard to predict whether Clint Eastwood (94) and Warren Buffett (93) will pass away to joyfully rest in peace tonight, this week, this year, this decade, but within a few decades the chances of the two iconic men having permanently checked out of Earth become an almost certainty.
Can Harris beat Trump again?
It is impossible to predict whether Democrats will beat Republicans again in 2024. There are two many variables involved. Racism still runs deep in our country, both consciously and unconsciously. Primates generally prefer alpha male leaders. Bonobos are a rare exception. Most billionaires don't want to pay taxes. Racism aside, many independent voters in key battleground states do not favor left leaning policies. Politically speaking, there is an eternity left from now through the elections. It is too early, way too early, to call the elections for any party. It should be a very close race all the way to the end. Our prediction is that Harris will beat Trump again.
If our prediction comes true, the follow-on prediction is that Trump will not accept any fault for losing again. Trump will find others to blame and will never accept any fault. That is an easy prediction. Another one, going back to the outcome of the race is that race, in the context of either fighting in favor or against of racism will remain the one and only real issue of these elections. All other campaign issues are excuses and shields. The R in Trump Republicanism stands for Racism. The D in Democrats stands for Diversity. Racism and Exclusion versus Diversity and Inclusion is the race this year. Trump wants his followers to "fight" for whiteness, fight for racism and exclusion, and "fight" for the empty hope and deep hole of Making America White Again.
It would be fun to see how Republicans react to another embarrassing Trump defeat? They could have chosen Nikki Haley. Any woman is better than Trump. It's too late now because Trump would never do what Biden did, stepping aside so that younger generations can lead. We'll see. It's too early to tell and too much fun to miss.
Will the stock market keep climbing? What about NVIDIA?
The stock market will continue having its cyclical ups and downs. NVIDIA will NOT rise forever, and will fall from the AI bubble highs sooner or later. It is not a matter of if NVIDIA will fall, but a matter of when, which is very hard to predict.
We'll see.
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