Are we closer to World War III after Assad's' fall in Syria?

December 8, 2024

Are we closer to World War III after Assad's fall in Syria?   

Well, yes because World War III will be in the future and we are always closer to the future. Now, that future has not been created yet so it's impossible to predict it with full accuracy. Whether the world moves into WWIII after Assad's fall will greatly depend on what Putin decides to do. After all, Assad is hiding in Russia from where he could try to organize a come back. We should all prepare for WWIII. Sooner or later WWIII will be real. Perhaps we are already at the initial stages and have not realized it. a WWIII will most likely bring significant human suffering and significant technological advances. Who will win, how will WWIII play out? No one knows yet. The future has not been created yet. 

In this post we take a quick look into Syria's history including who is Bashar al-Assad, and what may happen in Syria and the region now that Assad's regime collapsed and the dictator is in Russia. 

Modern-day Syria is a mostly Arab (80% of the 23 million total population) country in West Asia or the Middle East. Syria is bordered by Turkey to the north; the Mediterranean Sea and Lebanon to the East; Israel and Jordan to the South; and Iraq to the West. With a land area of approximately 71,500 sq miles (185,180 sq km), Syria is about the size of Washington State, a little less than half the size of California. 

Syria's History: Crossroads of Many Empires

Throughout history Syria was occupied and ruled by several empires, including the Egyptians, Hittites, Sumerians, Mitanni, Assyrians, Babylonians, Canaanites, Phoenicians, Arameans, Amorites, Persians, Greeks, Romans, Islamic Caliphates, the Ottoman Empire, and French Colonialism until achieving independence in 1946.

• Egyptians (c. 3150–1070 BCE). Strongest Egyptian influence was during the New Kingdom period (c. 1550–1070 BCE).
• Sumerians (c. 3100–2000 BCE). Early city-states like Ebla and Mari were under Sumerian cultural and trade influence.
• Amorites (c. 2000–1600 BCE). Dominated much of Syria during the early 2nd millennium BCE, with the establishment of city-states like Mari.
• Canaanites (c. 2000–1200 BCE). Coexisted with Amorites and were prominent in the coastal regions of ancient Syria.
• Mitanni (c. 1500–1300 BCE). Controlled northern Syria and influenced by Hurrian culture during their peak.
• Hittites (c. 1600–1200 BCE). Dominated northern Syria during the Late Bronze Age, clashing with Egypt at the Battle of Kadesh (c. 1274 BCE).
• Assyrians (c. 1350–612 BCE). The Middle Assyrian Empire (c. 1350–1076 BCE) and later the Neo-Assyrian Empire (c. 911–612 BCE) brought much of Syria under their control.
• Babylonians (c. 612–539 BCE). Neo-Babylonian Empire replaced Assyria and controlled parts of Syria, including major cities like Damascus.
• Phoenicians (c. 1200–539 BCE). Thrived along the Syrian coast as a maritime culture, particularly during the Iron Age.
• Arameans (c. 1200–732 BCE). Migrated into Syria during the late Bronze Age collapse and established city-states like Damascus.
• Persians (c. 539–332 BCE). The Achaemenid Empire incorporated Syria after conquering Babylon.
• Greeks (c. 332–64 BCE). Alexander the Great conquered Syria in 332 BCE, and the Seleucid Empire (a successor state) ruled until Roman annexation.
• Romans (c. 64 BCE–395 CE). Syria became a province of the Roman Republic and later the Roman Empire. Notable cities like Palmyra flourished during this time.
• Islamic Caliphates (c. 7th–13th centuries CE). The Rashidun Caliphate conquered Syria in 636 CE, followed by the Umayyad Caliphate (661–750 CE, based in Damascus) and the Abbasid Caliphate (750–1258 CE).
• Ottoman Empire (c. 16th century until World War I). Sultan Selim I defeated the Mamluks in the Battle of Marj Dābiq in 1516. The Ottoman Empire's rule in Syria lasted until 1918, when British and Arab troops captured Damascus and Aleppo. 
• French Colonial Empire (1920 -1946). The French took control of modern-day Syria in 1920, and stayed in control until Syria's independence in 1946.

Following independence, Syria experienced political instability, characterized by multiple coups and the union with Egypt to form the United Arab Republic (1958–1961). In 1963, the Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party seized power, leading to decades of authoritarian rule. Hafez al-Assad became president in 1971, succeeded by his son, Bashar al-Assad, in 2000.

Syrian Civil War

In 2011, pro-democracy protests erupted in Syria as part of the Arab Spring. Protests escalated into a full-blown civil war. The war led to a severe humanitarian crisis with at least 300k deaths and about 12 million people displaced. This week, first week of December 2024, rebel forces captured Damascus. Assad's regime collapsed and Assad fled to Russia. It is yet to be seen if Assad will try to regain power, which could lead to another chapter of what may become World War III.

Who is Bashar al-Assad?

Bashar al-Assad, born on September 11, 1965, in Damascus, Syria, is the second son of Hafez al-Assad, who was Syria's president from 1971 until his death of a heart attack at the age of 69 in 2000.  Bashar studied ophthalmology at the University of Damascus and later continued his studies in London. However, following the death of his elder brother, Bassel, in a car accident in 1994, Bashar returned to Syria and entered the military academy at Homs where he was groomed to succeed his father.

In July 2000, after Hafez al-Assad's death, Bashar assumed the presidency after fraudulent elections where he won over 95% of the votes. Early during his tenure there were hopes for political and economic reforms, a period known as the "Damascus Spring." However, these reforms were short-lived, and the regime soon reverted to authoritarian practices, suppressing political dissent and maintaining a tight grip on power.

Syrian Civil War 

In 2011, pro-democracy protests erupted in Damascus and other Syrian cities as part of the Arab Spring. The Assad government pushed a violent crackdown on demonstrators, which led to a prolonged civil unrest that eventually became a civil war. 

Assad's regime faced numerous allegations of human rights abuses, including the use of chemical weapons. Despite international condemnation and sanctions, Assad managed to retain power, largely due to military and political support from allies such as Russia and Iran. 

This week, first week in December 2024, Syrian rebel forces captured Damascus, leading to the collapse of Assad's regime. Reports indicate that Assad fled to Moscow, Russia. This marks the end of his 24-year rule and the end of over half century of the Assad Family dominating Syria. 

Current Landscape and Demographics

Syria is a an interesting country with a current post-Civil war population of approximately 24 million people. Syria's terrain includes coastal plains (~12%) and mountain ranges (33%), but is mostly a desert (55%). The historic Euphrates River traverses the country, providing vital water resources. The population is mostly Arabic and the main official language is Arabic. 

• Arabs: ~80%. Arabs form the majority ethnic group in Syria, primarily practicing Sunni Islam, though significant minorities are Alawites, Christians, and Druze.
• Kurds: ~10-15%. Concentrated in the northeastern regions of Syria (e.g., Al-Hasakah and parts of Aleppo), Kurds are the largest ethnic minority.
• Turkmen: ~2-5%. Primarily Sunni Muslims, Syrian Turkmen are scattered across northern Syria, especially near the Turkish border.
• Assyrians (including Chaldeans and Syriacs): ~1-3%. Indigenous Christians of Syria, Assyrians are mainly concentrated in the northeast and urban centers like Aleppo and Damascus.
• Others: ~1-2%. Other ethnicities include Armenians, Circassians, Chechens, and smaller communities like Greeks and Yezidis.

Arabic is the official language, with Kurdish, Armenian, and Aramaic also spoken. Islam is the predominant religion, alongside Christian and Druze minorities.

Economy

Prior to the civil war, Syria's economy was diverse, with agriculture, industry, and energy sectors. The conflict has devastated infrastructure and led to significant economic decline. The country also faces challenges related to water supply and sanitation.

Current Situation

The recent developments this week in December 2024 have ushered in a new phase for Syria. The international community is closely monitoring the situation, with hopes for stabilization and reconstruction after years of conflict.

What will happen next in Syria?

No one knows. The future has not been created yet. The collapse of the Assad regime will present both opportunities and risks for Syria. The rebel forces are composed mostly of Sunni jihadists and Turkish-backed Islamists. These groups benefited indirectly from Israel's war against Hezbollah because that group was a main supporter of the Assad regime. 

With Assad's fall, Israel may see a reduction in immediate threats from Syria. Long term, however, the situation is harder to predict. The rise of islamist jihadist elements among the rebels introduces new security challenges in the Middle East. Will Syria become the next Iraq, which is hardly unheard of these days? That's a possibility. Will Putin back Assad's comeback? Not likely. Putin is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, which was one of the factors weakening Assad's regime, which was receiving less support from Russia. 

Now you know a tiny bit more about Syria.

www.creatix.one