Will Biden get out of the race? Based on the "race", will Democrats nominate Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom?

July 4, 2024

Happy 4th! 

Now that President Biden is about to announce that he will be stepping out of the presidential race due to Bindenzheimer Syndrome (i.e. perceived as too old and part senile to do a job), who should the Democratic Party nominate? Should the nominee be Vice President Kamala Harris or California Governor Gavin Newsom? Which candidate would have better odds against Trump? Can either one defeat Trump? Can anyone stop the Trump train?

The Democratic Party will nominate Governor Newsom. As a 6' 3" tall, relatively young, white man, Governor Newsom has higher odds of defeating 6'2" tall, 78 year old, whiteness king wannabe Donald Trump. Yes, it's 2024 and height, gender, and race are still very much decisive to win presidential elections in the United States. Height, gender, and race not only matter, but they matter a lot.

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Admitting failure and moving on.

This post admits failure on a previous prediction. We had predicted that Biden would win the elections and be re-elected President of the United States (POTUS). The prediction was based on Biden surviving the CNN presidential debate, which we thought (wrongly) that would be easy for Biden. All Biden had to do was appear  presidential, not too old, and not senile. Biden failed and so did our prediction. It was our fault. Life happens. Shit happens. They happen to everybody even to POTUS, the "establishment", and the "deep state". 

We accept failure and move on. Here's a new prediction. 

Biden will drop out of the presidential race this summer citing family and health reasons. This will not be an easy decision for Biden. It will come only after repeated requests, social media campaigns, and even organized mini rallies and marches of democrats asking Biden to step out of the race. Biden is a career politician, but is also a patriot who believes that Trump must be defeated to safeguard American democracy. 

Biden is the only man who can stop the Trump train, and can only do so by stepping out of the way. Trump is a wannabe king riding a seemingly unstoppable wave of desperate whiteness in our country. Trump is the quintessential King of Whiteness. Whiteness is our Northwestern European "religion" standing for the dogmatic belief that everything of northwestern European descent is superior to anything and everything else in the human world. The whiteness "religion" even believes (consciously or unconsciously) on a white man-like God ruling men and women from heaven. Yes, it's 2024 and people still believe in mythical supernatural forces controlling and influencing human behavior. And yes, the winners of wars, still justify their military and cultural conquests, including cultural colonization, on the grace of imaginary gods, or in the west, the grace of the "only one God" of the Arab desert.   

Trump is the adored leader of the American whiteness. Trump is a master analgesic that knows how to simplify everything to relieve the pain, fear, and anxiety of his followers. Trump simplifies everything and "Americanizes" everything. Like a king or a god, the image of Trump is that he is perfect, always correct, never wrong, and never at fault. To flourish under his throne or his grace all you have to do is suspend disbelief and become a loyal follower. 

Primates love having an alpha male leading them and protecting them. Primates feel relieved and safe believing that a strong alpha male is in charge of the troop and protecting them. That is the same feeling enjoyed, even addictively and to their detriment, by Trump supporters. It is not anybody's fault; it's genetics and evolution. After all, all Trump supporters are humans and all humans are primates. All Human-Americans are primates. 

Bidenzheimer, a new syndrome or disease

Biden, who is also a primate, a relatively old and apparently partially senile by now, is suffering of a new syndrome that we can call Bidenzheimer. It is not quite Alzheimer's disease, but it may be the beginning of it. Whatever it is, it may be totally okay and normal, but not for someone seeking the most coveted and competitive job on Earth. Trump is relatively old and partially demented for sure. Trumpzheimer may be another syndrome or disease. However, somehow Biden makes Trump look young and lucid. That, in and of itself, explains why Biden must step down and quit the race. Late this summer, Biden will cut a few deals and step out of the race. After the elections, regardless of the outcome, Biden will most likely pardon the federal offenses of his son Hunter Biden, but that is a prediction for another post. 

Who will be the Democratic candidate for President in 2024?

The question for this post is who will be the Democratic Party nominee for the November 2024 elections once Biden drops out of the race later this summer. Who should the party nominate? Should they nominate Vice President Kamala Harris or California Governor Gavin Newsom?

The white man. 

When in doubt, go white. For sure, the safest bet for the Democratic Party is to nominate the tall, relatively young, white man. It may be 2024, but Americans are still humans and humans are still primates. Height, age, gender, and race still matter in politics, and they matter a lot. 

Kamala Harris, as a woman of color, falls short of having solid odds of beating the whiteness king. Many undecided voters in key battleground states will find many "reasons" (objective reasons in their minds) to prefer Trump over Harris. The "reasons" will be rationalizations of biases (conscious and unconscious).  

Democrats will find "reasons" to explain to themselves why Gavin Newsom will make a better candidate than Kamala Harris. Kamala Harris will be too linked to Biden, who is not only Bidenzheimer, but also associated to inflation, illegal immigration (code term for latinos), urban (code word for black) crime, and many liberal ideas that conservatives fear. Kamala Harris is not too charismatic. Other women of color such as Michelle Obama and Oprah Winfrey would do significantly better, but they will not run for election. Kamala will most likely fight for the nomination, and may even win it. Her chances of beating Trump, however, are not significantly better than Biden's and could even be significantly worse. Again, voters are primates. Trump, as the alpha male, would rip apart the woman of color running against him. 

Since Kamala Harris can't beat Trump, Gavin Newsom may be the best hope for Democrats. Democratic party calculations will be validated by internal polls that will show that in at least three of the four more important battleground states, Newsom is favored over Kamala by both democrats and undecided independent voters. 

The key battleground states in 2024 are the ones that Biden won in 2020 by the tiniest margins.

1. Georgia: Biden by 0.3%
2. Arizona: Biden by .06% 
3. Wisconsin: Biden by 0.6% 
4. Pennsylvania: Biden by 0.7% 

Other than Georgia, where Kamala may poll stronger than Newsom, polls will most likely indicate that Gavin Newsom would do better than Kamala Harris against Donald Trump. What do you think the Democratic Party will do? We think that the party will nominate California Governor Gavin Newsom to run as their candidate against Republican prospective candidate Donald J. Trump. That contest would be very competitive and would not be decided until election night. In the end, the white man will win. Bet on it. 

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