What will happen during a second Trump administration?

July 7, 2024

No one knows what will happen during a second Trump administration, or even if it will happen. The future has not been created yet. For all we know, Trump can drop dead tonight from a massive heart attack or choking on a cheeseburger with fries. In any event, it is fun to make predictions. 

A second Trump administration will most likely be politically fun and economically rewarding for most. On the entertainment front, Trump will be again our Entertainment Commander in Chief. The most entertaining president in our history, Trump will surely command media attention to ignite passions left and right. It would be Season II of Trump's quasi White House reality TV show. Trump will say and post crazy controversial things to entertain and amaze all of us. On the economic front, Trump's hybrid mix of conservative policies with massive debtful spending will boost the American economy. Inflationary pressure will persist, especially if the Trump administration deports the Mexicans and Latinos working underground for low wages, and if tariffs are added to Chinese imports. 

A Third Impeachment 

The morning after the elections, the anti-Trump movement (ATM) will begin the campaign to impeach Trump again (ITA). Democrats will ride the ATM to get control of Congress in 2026. Only Trump will be able to prevent that from happening by playing nice. By 2027 Trump will most likely face impeachment proceedings again if Democrats control the House of Representatives. Trump would be breaking his own record as twice impeached president to become the only impeached three times. The third impeachment may be successful if Democrats also control the Senate. Now that the Supreme Court made it almost impossible to indict a President for acts committed while in office, impeachment will be even more crucial for the ATM.

Normal economic growth 

Overall, we should see normal economic growth during a second Trump administration. There are no reasons to believe that a second Trump administration would lead to economic results significantly different from those during the first time in office (years 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020). 2020 was especially bad under Trump, but the failure is mostly attributed to the COVID19 pandemic. It is unlikely that another pandemic hits the world during a second Trump administration. World War III may be more likely than another pandemic, but is not likely either. Trump doesn't mess with Putin and it will be hard to start WWIII without picking a fight with Russia and China at the same time. We'll see. 

Here is what can be anticipated under a second Trump administration (in random order)

• Less illegal immigrants.
• A weaker dollar to help American companies doing business abroad, and domestic real estate companies. 
• Lower taxes to promote economic development. 
• Less regulations and a pro business environment.
• Less welfare to incentivize people to work
• Less abortions to save the race.
• Less Chinese imports to save face.

During a second Trump administration, we can anticipate an increase in conservative economic measures, a decrease in progressive measures, together with record spending and record National debt. Below is a quick comparison between conservative and progressive economic policies. They represent two distinct approaches to managing an economy, reflecting different ideologies and priorities. 

Conservative Economic Policies

Key Principles:

• Limited Government Intervention: Conservatives generally advocate for minimal government involvement in the economy. They believe that free markets are the most efficient way to allocate resources.
• Lower Taxes: Emphasis on reducing taxes for individuals and businesses to encourage investment, entrepreneurship, and economic growth.
• Deregulation: Reduction of government regulations on businesses to foster innovation, efficiency, and competitiveness.
• Fiscal Responsibility: Focus on reducing government spending and avoiding budget deficits. Conservatives often prioritize balancing the budget and reducing public debt.
• Free Trade: Support for free trade agreements and minimal trade barriers, arguing that this leads to economic growth and consumer benefits through lower prices and more choices.

Conservative Policy Examples:

• Tax Cuts: Reducing income taxes, corporate taxes, and capital gains taxes to stimulate investment and spending.
• Deregulation: Rolling back regulations on industries such as finance, energy, and healthcare to reduce costs and administrative burdens on businesses.
• Welfare Reform: Reducing the size and scope of welfare programs to decrease government spending and encourage personal responsibility and self-sufficiency.
• Privatization: Transferring services and industries from public to private control to increase efficiency and reduce government expenditure.

Progressive Economic Policies

Key Principles:

• Government Intervention: Progressives advocate for significant government involvement to correct market failures, reduce inequality, and provide public goods and services.
• Progressive Taxation: Emphasis on higher taxes for the wealthy and corporations to fund social programs and reduce income inequality.
• Regulation: Support for regulations that protect consumers, workers, and the environment. Progressives believe that regulations are necessary to ensure fair practices and prevent abuses.
• Social Welfare: Strong support for social safety nets and welfare programs to provide a basic standard of living and reduce poverty.
• Public Investment: Advocating for government investment in infrastructure, education, healthcare, and research to promote long-term economic growth and social well-being.

Progressive Policy Examples:

• Universal Healthcare: Implementing or expanding government-funded healthcare systems to provide coverage for all citizens.
• Education Funding: Increasing funding for public education, including higher education, to improve access and quality.
• Social Security Expansion: Strengthening and expanding social security programs to ensure financial security for retirees and those unable to work.
• Environmental Regulation: Enacting policies to combat climate change and protect the environment, such as emissions regulations and investments in renewable energy.
• Minimum Wage Increases: Raising the minimum wage to ensure that workers earn a livable income.

Role of Government:

• Conservatives: Prefer a limited role for government, emphasizing individual responsibility and market-driven solutions.
• Progressives: Advocate for a more active government role in addressing social and economic issues, ensuring fairness and equality.

Taxation:

• Conservatives: Favor lower taxes and simpler tax codes to spur economic activity and personal freedom.
• Progressives: Support progressive taxation where the wealthy pay a higher rate, using tax revenue to fund social programs and reduce inequality.

Regulation:

• Conservatives: Aim to reduce regulations to enhance business efficiency and economic freedom.
• Progressives: Believe regulations are necessary to protect public interests, including health, safety, and the environment.

Social Welfare:

• Conservatives: Prefer limited welfare programs, focusing on reducing dependency and encouraging self-reliance.
• Progressives: Support extensive social welfare programs to provide a safety net and reduce poverty and inequality.

Public Investment:

• Conservatives: Generally cautious about public spending, emphasizing private sector solutions.
• Progressives: Advocate for significant public investment in key areas like healthcare, education, and infrastructure to promote social well-being and economic growth.

In summary, conservative economic policies prioritize market freedom, low taxes, and minimal government intervention, while progressive economic policies emphasize social equity, government regulation, and public welfare. Each approach reflects different values and priorities regarding how best to achieve economic prosperity and social justice.

During a second Trump administration, we can expect a mix of predominantly conservative economic policies except on the debt and spending element. Trump is not a fiscal conservative and will push Congress to authorize trillions in public expenditures that can be used to enrich a few and entertain many. It will be fun. Stay tuned.

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