Can AI predict who will be the next president of the United States?

February 19, 2024

Not yet. Not today. Artificial intelligence (AI) cannot accurately predict yet who will be the next president of the United States because the elections are still more than 8 months away and there are too many variables involved. 

AI is computerized human-like intelligence. Intelligence is the ability to acquire knowledge and skills to solve problems. Problems can be solved by identifying the causal patterns and correlations of cause and effect. Once causality is established, predictions can be made, and outcomes can be altered by altering the causal variables and processes involved. 

What motivates human voters to vote, and how humans choose for whom to vote?

Humans can be seen as organic computers processing data input into information output. While humans are complex and advanced animals, at the aggregate level, human decision-making processing is binary: avoid pain and seek pleasure. Everything humans do can be explained by the binary pain / pleasure programming in the human brain. When given alternatives, humans choose the alternative that the human brain emotionally believes leads to avoiding pain and obtaining pleasure. 

Cognitive Diversity

Different humans have different pain / pleasure mental associations. The same human can have different pain / pleasure mental associations at different times during the day or during a lifetime. Mental plasticity allows humans to change the mental associations in their brains. 

Convenience

Humans vote for convenience. Humans vote if they find it beneficial and convenient to them. Humans vote for the party or candidate whom they unconsciously and emotionally associate with delivering benefit, privilege, and convenience. 

Tradition

Many humans find tradition to be emotionally pleasant and thus convenient. If they have been culturally programmed and socially trained to hold a certain political perspective and to vote a certain way to belong to certain pack, humans will find it convenient and pleasant to keep voting in the learned tradition regardless of reason. The emotional need to keep their identity and belong to a political pack will come first, and the rationalizations will follow. In humans emotions come first, reasons follow.

Independence 

Some humans value political independence, which they demonstrate to themselves by switching political sides often. They find that independence pleasant and convenience thus follow it. They associate belonging to a set political pack negatively and associate positively belonging to the pack of undecided or independent voters. 

Fear

Fear is painful. Humans are programmed to avoid pain. Political parties strive to make voters afraid of the policies of the other party. Fear is key to motivate traditional voters to actually show up and vote. Fear is also key to motivate swings in independent voters. For example, fear of illegal immigration and fear of losing the privileges of systemic racism are strong motivators in U.S. elections. If the economy remains strong until November, immigration and racism will be the most fundamental issues of the 2024 presidential elections. 

Incumbents

Absent a major crisis (economic, political, or health), the incumbent President (of any party) has the higher odds of being reelected. Short of a major crisis hitting within the next 8 months, including a chances are that the incumbent president will be reelected by the independent voters that decide U.S. presidential elections.

Rematchs

A Trump vs Biden rematch would be the seventh rematch in the history of the United States. The first five were in the 1800s. The last one was in 1956 when Sevenson rematched President Eisenhower trying to even a prior loss in 1952. Eisenhower's approval ratings were super high (almost 80%), but he was relatively old (70 years old) and had suffered a heart attack the year before being hospitalized for almost two months. Regardless, Eisenhower as the incumbent beat Stevenson easily. 

AI Predictions

AI can predict that the majority of voters are irrelevant. About 80% of voters will stick to tradition regardless of the candidates and the issues. The 20% of independents, and in specific swing states, are the ones who will decide the 2024 U.S. presidential elections. 

AI can be loaded big data sets to detect patterns and correlations that can lead to inferences of cause and effect for independent voters in swing states. Some inferences may be valid assumptions and others may be "hallucinations" without full human context. With training to eliminate hallucinations and errors, the range of predictions can get more accurate and beat human predictions. 

AI can explore economic indicators from macroeconomic ones (GDP, interest rates, unemployment rate, inflation, home sales, retail sales, commodity prices...) to microeconomic ones (consumer sentiment, labor sentiment) to find correlations about when incumbents are reelected and when they are defeated. Conventional knowledge is that incumbents are reelected unless there is a recession or another major crisis. AI will most likely reaffirm that conventional knowledge. 

Easy Prediction

The candidate who wins the majority of the electoral college votes will win the 2024 presidential elections in the U.S. Unlike other countries, the United States does not follow a popular vote system where the candidate with the most votes automatically win. The U.S. Constitution established an electoral college system. 

Below some additional information about the elections, including an easy prediction. The candidate with the majority of electoral college votes will win. If things remain as they are trending, there will be a rematch for the white house. This will be the seventh presidential rematch in the history of the United States. Five of the previous 6 rematches were in the 1800s when the country was very different. The last rematch was in the 1950s, and the candidate who had lost before lost again. 

The United States Electoral College is the system used to elect the President and Vice President of the United States. Here's how it works:

• Selection of Electors: Each state has a certain number of electors equal to the total number of its Senators and Representatives in Congress. Electors are typically chosen by the political parties within each state, either through a party convention or by a vote of the party's central committee.
• Popular Vote: On Election Day, voters in each state cast their ballots for the presidential candidate of their choice. In most states, the candidate who receives the majority of the popular vote in that state wins all of the state's electoral votes. Maine and Nebraska, however, use a different system where the winner of the popular vote in each congressional district receives one electoral vote, and the winner of the statewide popular vote receives two electoral votes.
• Meeting of the Electors: Several weeks after the general election, the electors meet in their respective states to cast their votes for President and Vice President. These votes are then sealed and sent to Congress.
• Counting of Electoral Votes: On January 6th following the election, a joint session of Congress convenes to count the electoral votes. The Vice President, acting in his capacity as President of the Senate, presides over the count. If a candidate receives a majority of the electoral votes (270 out of 538), they are declared the winner.
• Tie breaking Procedures: If no candidate receives a majority of the electoral votes, the House of Representatives selects the President from among the top three candidates, with each state delegation casting one vote. The Senate selects the Vice President from the top two candidates.

Criticism of the Electoral College includes concerns that it can result in a candidate winning the presidency despite losing the popular vote, as occurred in the elections of 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016. Supporters argue that the Electoral College ensures that smaller states have a voice in the presidential election and prevents candidates from focusing solely on populous areas.

Why the Electoral College?

The Founding Fathers established the Electoral College system for several reasons, reflecting the historical and political context of the time:

• Balance of Power: The Electoral College was seen as a compromise between those who wanted the President to be elected by Congress and those who wanted a direct popular vote. It was designed to balance the interests of both large and small states by giving each state a certain number of electoral votes based on its representation in Congress (a combination of its Senators and Representatives).
• Federalism: The Founders sought to maintain a balance between state sovereignty and federal authority. The Electoral College reflects this by giving states a significant role in the election process. Electors are chosen by the states, and each state has the freedom to determine its own method for selecting electors and conducting elections.
• Compromise between Large and Small States: The Electoral College system helped to balance the interests of large and small states by giving smaller states a proportionally greater influence in the election process. This was achieved by providing each state with a minimum of three electoral votes (equal to its two Senators plus at least one Representative), regardless of its population size.
• Concerns about Populism: Some of the Founders were wary of direct democracy and feared the potential for tyranny of the majority. They believed that a system of indirect election, where voters choose electors who then select the President, would provide a buffer against the passions of the populace and allow for more deliberative decision-making. The Electoral College was also intended to serve as a check on the popular will, in case the electorate were to make a rash decision or elect a candidate who was deemed unqualified or unfit for office. The electors were envisioned as knowledgeable individuals who could exercise independent judgment and prevent the election of an unsuitable candidate.

Overall, the Electoral College system was a product of the Founders' efforts to create a stable and effective method for electing the President that would safeguard against the potential pitfalls of direct democracy while also respecting the principles of federalism and state sovereignty.

How many electoral college votes there are in total?

The number of electoral college votes each state has is determined by the total number of Senators and Representatives it has in Congress. Each state has two Senators, and the number of Representatives is based on the state's population, as determined by the decennial census.

Here is a list of electoral college votes per state, plus the District of Columbia: 

        Alabama - 9 votes; Alaska - 3 votes; Arizona - 11; Arkansas - 6; California - 55; Colorado - 9; Connecticut - 7; Delaware - 3; District of Columbia - 3; Florida - 29; Georgia - 16; Hawaii - 4; Idaho - 4; Illinois - 20; Indiana - 11; Iowa - 6; Kansas - 6; Kentucky - 8; Louisiana - 8; Maine - 4; Maryland - 10; Massachusetts - 11; Michigan - 16; Minnesota - 10; Mississippi - 6; Missouri - 10; Montana - 3; Nebraska - 5; Nevada - 6; New Hampshire - 4; New Jersey - 14; New Mexico - 5; New York - 29; North Carolina - 15; North Dakota - 3; Ohio - 18; Oklahoma - 7; Oregon - 7; Pennsylvania - 20; Rhode Island - 4; South Carolina - 9; South Dakota - 3; Tennessee - 11; Texas - 38; Utah - 6; Vermont - 3; Virginia - 13 ;Washington - 12;West Virginia - 5; Wisconsin - 10; and Wyoming - 3

The total number of electoral votes is 538, which includes 435 Representatives, 100 Senators, and 3 votes for the District of Columbia. To win the presidency, a candidate must secure at least 270 electoral votes. Keep in mind that these numbers may change slightly due to reapportionment following each decennial census.

Swing States

From a practical point of view, the elections in the United States are decided by independent voters in swing states. These states, also known as battleground states, are states that could potentially "swing" to either Democratic or Republican candidates in elections. These states receive significant attention and campaign resources due to their uncertain electoral outcomes.

Since 1992, in the past 8 elections, 30 states have swung from one party to the other at least once. 26 states were won by less than three points since 1992. The current swing states, as of the 2020 presidential election, include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states are crucial in determining election outcomes and often have tight margins in races. Florida and Nevada have had close margins in multiple elections.

Contrary to swing states, there are some relatively static and predictable states in the United States. Since 1988, 20 states and the District of Columbia have voted consistently for the same party in every presidential election. 6 states plus DC consistently vote for the Democratic party, and 14 states vote  consistently Republican. Nevada and Ohio have matched the eventual election winner in most elections since 1988.

The Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) calculates how much a particular state or congressional district leans towards each political party. The higher the CPVI number for either Republican (R) or Democratic (D) party, the more the state leans toward that party. Both AI and humans can use the CPVI to predict a certain amount of electoral college votes that can be essentially counted already for each party. 

Republican Party: 110 electoral votes practically guaranteed

• Alabama (CPVI R+15):     9 votes
• Alaska (R+8):                     3 votes
• Arkansas R+16:                 6 votes
• Idaho R+18:                         4 votes
• Indiana R+11:                     11 votes
• Kansas R+10:                     6 votes
• Kentucky R+16:                 8 votes
• Lousiana R+12:                 8 votes
• Mississippi R+11:             6 votes
• Missouri (R+10):             10 votes
• Montana R+11:                 3 votes
• Nebraska R+13:                5 votes
• North Dakota (R+20):      3 votes
• South Dakota (R+16):      3 votes
• Tennessee (R+14):          11 votes
• Utah (R+13):                     6 votes
• West Virginia R+22:         5 votes
• Wyoming R+25:                3 votes

Democratic Party: 128 electoral college votes practically guaranteed 

• California (CPVI) D+13: 55 votes
• Hawaii D+14: 4 votes
• Maryland D+14: 10 votes
• Massachusetts D+15: 11 votes
• New York D+10: 29 votes
• Rhode Island D+8: 4 votes
• Vermont D+16: 3 votes
• Washington D+8: 12 votes

Our Prediction

Our prediction at this stage, still 8 months away, is that the incumbent will win reelection absent a major COVID-like crisis hitting the United States or the incumbent President himself (e.g. health crisis) between now and then. Since 1951, incumbent presidents have lost their bids for reelection only in 1976, 1980, 1992, and 2020. 

From what can be seen today, still 8 months away from the elections, it will be very uphill for Mr. Trump to defeat Mr. Biden without a major, major crisis unsettling the American collective psyche between now and then. And that is why neither AI nor human intelligence can accurately predict who will be the next President of the United States. The elections are still too far away.

The Unforeseen 

AI could be involved in a major unforeseen economic crisis. To the extent that the current AI bubble gets completely out of control and burst incredibly badly about 5 or 6 months from now, economic turmoil could create a major political crisis for the incumbent administration. That is highly unlikely, but not possible. 

A major health crisis (e.g. heart attack or stroke) afflicting 81-year old Mr. Biden could prove insurmountable if it hits between now and the elections. Of course, both Biden and Trump are old men who could die any day now according to statistical models. Eight US presidents have died while in office. Four were assassinated, and four died of natural causes. 

Here are the causes of death and ages at death for the specified serving presidents:

• William Henry Harrison: Died on April 4, 1841. Cause of death: Pneumonia (complications from a cold he caught during his inauguration speech, which was the longest in history). Age at death: 68 years old.
• Abraham Lincoln: Died on April 15, 1865. Cause of death: Assassination by John Wilkes Booth. Age at death: 56 years old.
• James Garfield: Died on September 19, 1881. Cause of death: Assassination by Charles J. Guiteau. Age at death: 49 years old.
• William McKinley: Died on September 14, 1901. Cause of death: Assassination by Leon Czolgosz. Age at death: 58 years old.
• Warren Harding: Died on August 2, 1923. Cause of death: Heart attack or stroke (the exact cause is debated). Age at death: 57 years old.
• Zachary Taylor: Died in 1850 (exact date: July 9, 1850). Cause of death: Likely acute gastroenteritis (the exact cause is disputed, and there have been theories of assassination, but modern medical experts lean towards natural causes). Age at death: 65 years old.
• Franklin Delano Roosevelt: Died on April 12, 1945. Cause of death: Cerebral hemorrhage (stroke). Age at death: 63 years old.

Finally, a major crisis at the border with Mexico may play a significant role in the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections 8 months from now in November. We'll see. The future has not been created yet. Interesting this creatix universe is. 

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