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December 14, 2024 Is Tesla a bigger bubble than Bitcoin?  That is a trick question implying that both Tesla and Bitcoin are financial bubbles. Bitcoin and Tesla believers disagree strongly on the notion of the two being bubbles.  What is a financial bubble? A "financial bubble" is an economic situation where the price of an asset inflates far above its "true" value, fueled by excessive market speculation, ignorant enthusiasm, and other factors (e.g. fear of missin out). Eventually, the bubble "bursts", leading to a rapid decline in price as the market sobers up from the euphoria. essentially, it's a period of unsustainable price inflation followed by a sudden crash. Is Bitcoin a bubble? No one knows. Some say Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value and that is essentially a scam leading to a  speculative bubble. Others propose say that Bitcoin is a true commodity, a scarce digital currency, that can be trusted more than fiat currencies. What is Bitcoin? Bitcoin ...

December 12, 2024 Will prices go up or down during the Second Coming of Trump? President-elect Donald Trump has acknowledged the difficulty of reducing grocery prices, stating, "It's hard to bring things down once they're up."  Lower Energy Costs and Better Logistics Trump hopes that lower energy costs and improved supply chains may prevent significant price increases on food. However, many economists believe that Trump's tariffs on foreign countries and massive deportation of illegal immigrants, which include millions of undocumented farm workers, will increase food prices.  Additionally, while Trump emphasizes the role that potentially lower energy prices may have in food costs, experts note that energy constitutes a relatively small portion of food production expenses. Energy prices may also increase despite experts forecasting that they will stay relatively low or go further down. After all, economists and financial experts are wrong often, almost all of the t...

December 11, 2024 When will the Tesla bubble burst?  We don't know Fools rush in. It's impossible to know exactly when the Tesla bubble will finally burst. Unfortunately for us at Creatix, we began shorting Tesla too soon. We are down almost 40% on our position as of today. We are not fooling ourselves thinking that we were ever make money on the short position. We truly doubt that Tesla can go down 40% any time soon.  We would love to add to the short position, but it would exceed our $3,000 limit on the stupid bets that we do for fun. We're not Mr. Beast. We have a very limited budget for ridiculousness. We would love to short Tesla tomorrow morning at the ridiculous share price of $424. Tesla is trading at an incredible 116 times earnings, which gives Tesla a market capitalization of $1.32 Trillion. Elon Musk added today $13.4 billion to his fortune. Yes, $13 billion in one day. Yesterday, he had added $11 billion. Yes, that's $24 billion in 2 days.  Six months ago, ...

December 10, 2024 Is there a Tesla bubble? You bet. As of December 10, 2024, Tesla (Ticker: TSLA) is approaching an all-time high valuation, with a current share price of $401. The record closing price stands at $410, achieved on November 4, 2021. This gives the American electric car maker a market capitalization of $1.26 Trillion.  Tesla is trading at 110 times earnings. The average price to earnings ratio in the "traditional" automotive industry (excluding Tesla, and also excluding Chinese car makers) is about 6.7. That is, while almost all car makers in the world trade at 7 times earnings in average, Tesla is trading at 110, which is 15 times the industry average.  Major Automakers (Excluding Tesla and Chinese car makers) ranked by P/E: Subaru Corporation (Ticker: 7270.T): 12.0 Suzuki Motor Corporation (Ticker: 7269.T): 10.0 Toyota Motor Corporation (Ticker: TM): 9.70 Isuzu Motors Limited (Ticker: 7202.T): 9.0 Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (Ticker: HMC): 8.0 Mazda Motor Corporatio...

December 9, 2024 Do you want to invest in the best companies in the U.S. and forget about the rest?  It's easy. Buy shares of low cost exchange traded funds (ETFs) that track the performance of the S&P 500. Three of these ETFs are the Vanguard's "VOO"; iShares "IVV", and State Street's "SPDR". What is the S&P 500? The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) is a stock market index (list) designed to measure the weighted performance of the best 500 publicly traded companies in the United States. S&P 500 Timeline and Milestones: 1923: Standard Statistics Company introduced the first stock market index, a precursor to the S&P 500. It tracked 233 U.S. companies across various industries. 1941: Standard Statistics merged with Poor's Publishing, forming Standard & Poor's Corporation. 1957: The modern S&P 500 was launched. It was the first stock market index to be calculated using a computer, enabling real-tim...

December 8, 2024 Will Trump's tariffs and deportations bring inflation? That is the big question that everyone is trying to answer. The financial markets seem very positive about the Second Coming of Trump. Everyone thinks that everything will work out great. Hopefully it does. We're all counting on Trump and his team to keep the party going. The economy is doing super well as it is yet Trump will change it big time. There will be high tariffs on many foreign imports and there will be mass deportations of lower wage workers. These measures could lead to inflation, but that is not a foregone conclusion.  Tariffs and Inflation  Historically, the imposition of tariffs on foreign goods has often led to increased consumer prices, contributing to inflation. However, there have been instances where tariffs did not result in significant inflationary pressures, influenced by various economic factors and policy contexts. Domestic and international examples: Steel Tariffs (2002): In Marc...

December 8, 2024 Are we closer to World War III after Assad's fall in Syria?    Well, yes because World War III will be in the future and we are always closer to the future. Now, that future has not been created yet so it's impossible to predict it with full accuracy. Whether the world moves into WWIII after Assad's fall will greatly depend on what Putin decides to do. After all, Assad is hiding in Russia from where he could try to organize a come back. We should all prepare for WWIII. Sooner or later WWIII will be real. Perhaps we are already at the initial stages and have not realized it. a WWIII will most likely bring significant human suffering and significant technological advances. Who will win, how will WWIII play out? No one knows yet. The future has not been created yet.  In this post we take a quick look into Syria's history including who is Bashar al-Assad, and what may happen in Syria and the region now that Assad's regime collapsed and the dictator is i...

December 7, 2024 Is income inequality a blessing in disguise?   There are about 800 billionaires based in the United States with a combined wealth totaling about $7 trillion. If you take away all their money and hand it over in equal amounts to every American citizen, each one of us would receive about $20,000. We would quickly spend it and be equally poor in a heartbeat.   If distributed equally, the fortunes of our billionaires will be reduced to almost a one time payment slightly above the annual poverty line income per citizen, which is $15,000. There would not be any billionaires and we would all have an extra $20k that would not last long. That is. after achieving the radical equality "dream" of getting rid of billionaires in furtherance of achieving income equality, we will all be equally poor.  After getting rid of billionaires, millionaires would come next on the crazy income equality agenda.  There are approximately 8 million millionaires in the U...

December 6, 2024 Is it time to short TESLA stock (Ticker: TSLA): Tesla's stock has been on fire since Donald Trump won the elections. The financial markets are betting that Elon Musk and Tesla will profit greatly during the Second Coming of Trump. Most professionals believe (or are selling the belief) that Tesla's stock will continue rising forever. While it may be a little too to begin shoring Tesla, brave contrarian speculators may benefit from putting Tesla on their radars for shorting opportunities. Nothing lasts forever. What goes up, comes down. Neither Trump nor Musk are gods. Both Trump and Musk are simple primates and mortals. Both men are up today for sure, and both will come down eventually. Gravity is a bitch. Trump Mania Won't Last Forever What we are seeing is crazy and perhaps unprecedented in our history. The U.S. economy is doing amazingly well in all regards. Part of the reason is that our economy is a fully diversified and completely globalized economy wi...

November 4, 2026 Is it an urban legend that most businesses fail?  Urban legends are types of myth that most people believe to be true when they in fact are not. When it comes to whether or not most businesses fail, although it appears to be an urban legend, apparently it is a fact. ently not. According to most experts the fact is that most businesses fail. Regardless of their size or potential at any given point in time, most business ventures fail or wrap up sooner than expected. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), only 25% of new businesses make it past 15 years. Out of the 75% that fail within 15 years or less, about 50% fail within the first five years.  Why do businesses fail?  Understanding the common reasons behind business failures can help all stakeholders (entrepreneurs, managers, employees, lenders, creditors, suppliers, investors, regulators, consumers, competitors, etc.) prepare for reality and implement risk mitigation strategies. Main R...

December 3, 2024 Is buying gold the golden rule of investing? Has gold outperformed the S&P 500 in the last 28 years?  Surprisingly, over the past 28 years, from 1997 to 2024, gold and the S&P 500 have produced very similar returns. A dollar invested in the S&P 500 in January 1997 would be worth today about $8. The same $1 invested in gold in the same month would also be worth today about $8. Meanwhile that same $1 if left uninvested (under the mattress) would have lost about half of its value due to inflation (2.55% annual average).  Isn't that super interesting?  The S&P 500 is a sophisticatedly curated index comprised of what are considered to be the best 500 publicly traded companies in the United States. Gold is a piece of metal. The S&P is led by the fanciest technology companies and the top economic players on every segment of the economy. Gold is a piece of metal. The S&P 500 relies on the expertise of thousands of financial experts, sophis...

December 1, 2024 Which NFL city has the most affordable Big Mac? Which one has the most expensive one? The most expensive NFL city or metropolitan area is Boston (Foxborough, MA, home of the New England Patriots) where a Big Mac dents your card by $7.09. The least expensive is Charlotte, NC, home of the Carolina Panthers where you can buy a Big Mac for only $4.19. Here's a list of the 30 cities hosting the 32 NFL teams (LA and NY have two teams each), ranked using the Big Mac Index. Boston, MA (New England Patriots): $7.09 Chicago, IL (Chicago Bears): $6.09 Los Angeles, CA (Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers): $5.89 San Francisco, CA (San Francisco 49ers): $5.89 Denver, CO (Denver Broncos): $5.69 Kansas City, MO (Kansas City Chiefs): $5.69 Phoenix, AZ (Arizona Cardinals): $5.59 Houston, TX (Houston Texans): $5.36 Dallas, TX (Dallas Cowboys): $5.36 New York, NY (New York Giants, New York Jets): $5.29 Buffalo, NY (Buffalo Bills): $5.29 Baltimore, MD (Baltimore Ravens): $5.19 Wash...

November 29, 2024 Happy Black Friday. We hope you find some good deals in stores and online. Remember that Cyber Monday is coming up next. Hint: most retailers have expanded "black Friday" sales to the entire holiday season. No need to rush. No need to overspend. Was this year the most expensive Thanksgiving in U.S. history?  No. Although it felt expensive, this year's average Thanksgiving dinner was about 5% less than last year according to the economists keeping track. Reportedly, the average meal for 10 people was $58 this year ($5.80) per person. Supposedly, last year was about 5% more, mainly because turkeys were 6% more expensive last year.  For most Americans, food prices seem and feel very expensive. They seem to increase overall year by year. In fact, with the exception of the 1930s after the Great Depression, and between 2007 and 2008 after the Great Recession, food prices have gone up almost every year since economists have been tracking.  Moderate inflation is...