Creatix / June 12, 2025
⚠️ A Market Correction Is Imminent: Economic Reality Is About to Collide with Wall Street Fantasy
The stock market is on fire. The S&P 500 is just 1.5% off its all-time high, and investor sentiment appears oddly euphoric. But beneath the surface, troubling signs are hiding in plain sight. Our bold prediction: Beginning Friday, June 13, 2025, the market will begin a correction. We may already be in a recession, which may become a depression.
🔻 The Market Has Risen Too Far Devoid of Fundamentals
Despite trade disruptions (due to tariffs) and weakening consumer data (due to tariffs), equity markets have surged recently. Disconnects between asset prices and real economic conditions are unsustainable. Historically, such divergences end in sharp corrections, particularly when driven by speculation rather than fundamentals.
💸 Tariffs Are a Huge Tax
Our new wave of 55% tariffs on Chinese imports may be a political victory, but it is a very costly one. It may trigger a recession as consumers have no choice but to spend less. The sad truth is that taxing China is taxing all of us. For decades, we've grown dependent on Chinese manufacturing. Even our flagship innovation back in the day, the most successful product in history, the iphone, is made in China. Besides iphones, the aisles of all our stores are replete with products made in China that will become incredibly super expensive practically overnight.
Most Americans have not realized the incredibly adverse impact that tariffs will have in their budgets. We have never seen anything like this in our history. Never before have we imposed such a massive tax (55%) across the whole economy. This 55% tax is worse than a sales tax because it's imposed on import on top of which many others in the distribution chain can impose markups. That is, while sales taxes are paid at the end without any more markups, tariffs are paid at the front end and are subject to more markups. This will impact everyday goods ranging from electronics to household staples that will soon become drastically more expensive for all American families.
It's not only China and Chineses products. The added 10% baseline tariff on all imports from all other countries acts will make everything more expensive in our country. Even if we all decide to replace the foreign products with domestic ones, in many or most instances we do not produce them here and it would take years to facilitate production. Factories are not built overnight.
These are not small adjustments. They will erode real purchasing power and act as a drag on consumer demand, which is the backbone of our economy. We're all for making America great again. It's going to cost us a lot of money and financial pain. Something's gotta give and it will most likely be stock prices. Hence we're predicting a market correction.
🏭 The Myth of a Manufacturing Renaissance
Tariffs will revive American manufacturing. However, it will be automated (robotic) production, not huma. The reality is that modern factories rely more and more on automation, not labor-intensive assembly lines. Besides, surveys show that most Americans don’t want to work in factories anymore, especially not under the conditions and wages those jobs may offer.
Reshoring will not deliver a broad-based employment boom that could offset the economic drag from tariffs. This is a huge problem without easy solutions. We need to kick the habit or addiction of foreign manufacturing. Quitting cold turkey is awesome, but will be really expensive. Again, not the end of the world, but simply a reason why the stock market will correct.
🤖 AI Disruption Will Accelerate Economic Shrinkage
At the same time, AI continues to displace high-income knowledge workers—lawyers, analysts, coders, marketers. These job losses strike at the heart of professional-class spending power. Unlike past automation waves, AI affects white-collar, middle- and high-income earners, meaning it will reduce both demand and consumer confidence.
This is not creative destruction—it’s economic contraction.
Certainly—here’s an expanded and more detailed version of that section, suitable for use in an article or editorial:
🤖 AI Isn’t Just Replacing Labor—It’s Hollowing Out the Professional Class
At the same time that tariffs, inflation, and geopolitical instability are straining the global economy, another powerful force is quietly accelerating the damage: artificial intelligence is displacing high-income knowledge workers at a scale and speed unlike anything seen in prior industrial revolutions.
This is not about factory robots replacing assembly line jobs. This is about white-collar, college-educated professionals—lawyers, financial analysts, coders, architects, paralegals, copywriters, and marketers—being replaced or significantly devalued by generative AI, automation platforms, and decision engines.
📉 The Professional Paycheck Is Under Siege
For decades, the professional class has driven consumer spending and tax revenues. Their stable employment and high incomes fueled housing markets, retirement funds, retail sectors, and education systems. When that class begins to feel insecure—when their income potential starts falling—consumer demand shrinks across the board, and confidence evaporates.
We're already seeing:
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Law firms using AI to review contracts and write briefs, cutting junior positions
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Corporations deploying AI tools to replace marketing departments
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Financial firms using algorithms to automate investment research and client recommendations
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Tech companies relying on AI-assisted programming to reduce developer headcounts
Unlike previous waves of automation, this one doesn’t only affect low-skilled laborers—it affects people with graduate degrees, six-figure salaries, and massive consumer clout.
🚫 This Is Not "Creative Destruction"
Economists often refer to job-displacing innovation as "creative destruction"—the idea that some jobs must die so new ones can be born. But that assumes the newly created jobs are:
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More valuable, and
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Available in sufficient number
AI doesn't follow that pattern. The emerging reality is that entire categories of work are being streamlined, not restructured. One tool can now do the work of five marketers or three junior attorneys. There may be some new jobs in AI development, but they are far fewer than the jobs being displaced—and often require elite technical skills most workers don’t have and can’t quickly acquire.
🔄 The Productivity Paradox
AI may raise productivity for companies, but aggregate demand may fall because displaced workers don’t spend, don’t invest, and don’t hire. As middle- and upper-middle-class incomes are destabilized, the broader economy becomes more fragile. That’s not just a labor issue—it’s a macroeconomic threat.
🧨 Economic Contraction, Not Just Transition
We are not witnessing a neutral reshuffling of the workforce—we are watching the foundation of professional consumer capitalism erode in real time. Without robust safeguards or retraining systems in place, this AI-led labor shift could result in a long-term contraction in GDP, not just a temporary adjustment.
This is not a transition from horses to cars or from telegraphs to smartphones. This is something deeper and more destabilizing: a systemic downgrade of millions of jobs once thought to be immune to automation.
Unless this trend is managed with unprecedented foresight, we may soon discover that the rise of artificial intelligence is not just transforming our economy—it’s shrinking it.
🇺🇸 Deportations: Necessary and Costly
Mass deportation efforts are correct and necessary, but they are economically costly. While humane enforcement of immigration law is justified, we must be honest: deportation is an expense, not an investment. There’s no multiplier effect. Deportations shrink the economy and do not stimulate job creation or productivity.
Deportations shrink both the labor supply and consumer base, further contracting the economy. We can't deport the cake and eat it too.
🚫 The Hidden Economic Cost of Mass Deportations
Mass deportations come with a huge price tag. The costs are not just short-term and logistical. They are structural and long-term, with consequences that could contract the economy precisely when resilience and expansion are needed most. Yes, we're keeping America white, but we are significantly cutting the birth rates and reducing the population, which may end up imploding our white economy.
💸 Deportation Is an Expense—Not an Investment
Let’s be honest about the numbers: deporting millions of undocumented immigrants costs billions. Direct costs include border operations, detention facilities, legal processing, transportation, administrative staff, and law enforcement coordination. Indirect costs include a smaller and less productive economy with a negative birth rate, meaning that there will not be enough young people to work and sustain the aging baby boomer population.
And unlike infrastructure spending or educational investment, deportations do not yield economic returns. There is no multiplier effect—nothing productive is built, no innovation is generated, no workforce capacity is added. Instead, deportation is a fiscal outflow that removes economic contributors from both the supply and demand sides of the economy. Deportations are necessary and we're all in behind the president, but rest assure that the economy will pay the price. This is another reason why the stock market will correct.
👷 Shrinking the Labor Supply
Immigrants—documented and undocumented—form the current backbone of several U.S. industries:
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Agriculture
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Construction
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Hospitality
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Food processing
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Elder and child care
Removing large numbers of workers from these sectors:
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Reduces output
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Raises labor costs
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Drives inflation in services
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Delays or cancels projects
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Forces businesses to automate or offshore jobs
Immigrants will be replaced by automated robots and drones. Americans will not take immigrant jobst for immigrant pay.
Even in tech, logistics, and service industries, many undocumented workers serve as essential support staff, indirectly enabling productivity in high-value sectors. Their disappearance will not be seamless and painless. Americans may take some of these jobs, but it will take time to ramp up productivity. In the meantime, the economy will suffer and the stock market will correct.
🛍️ Shrinking the Consumer Base
Immigrants aren’t just workers. They’re consumers and producers of the next generation of patriotic Americans. They rent homes, buy groceries, pay sales taxes, use services, and enroll their U.S-born children in schools where they gradually learn to become Americans. Many of these families send remittances abroad, yes, but they spend the majority of their income here in the U.S. Deporting millions of consumers effectively shrinks demand for:
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Housing and utilities
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Retail and groceries
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Transportation and vehicles
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Phones, internet, and digital services
In aggregate, this reduces consumer spending, the largest single component of U.S. GDP. It may be the correct thing to do, but it will cost an ear and an eye. Wall Street will correct.
⚖️ A False Economic Tradeoff
Some believe that removing undocumented immigrants will “free up” jobs for Americans. In reality, most of the displaced jobs are either:
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Jobs most Americans don’t want (physically demanding, low-wage),
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Or jobs that require a labor intensity or cost level that domestic workers won’t accept.
Rather than replace undocumented workers with American-born ones, companies often:
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Scale down,
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Relocate to other countries, or
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Accelerate automation—which doesn’t rehire humans at all.
📉 Economic Contraction is Coming
In a time of growing global uncertainty—tariff shocks, AI labor displacement, supply chain instability—the U.S. economy will shrink. Mass deportations will reduce the labor force, shrink demand, raise costs, and contribute to recessionary dynamics.
In sum, deportation is correct, but costly as hell.
🏛️ Government Spending No Longer Stimulates Like It Used To
In theory, massive federal spending should act as a stimulus. But today’s spending is increasingly captured by large defense contractors, consultants, and overhead—with minimal trickle-down to Main Street. What should be an economic tailwind has become fiscal leakage, where billions flow into bureaucracies rather than into communities.
In short, we are spending more and getting less.
📉 The Recession May Already Be Here—We Just Haven’t Named It
The economy may already be in recession by technical or structural standards—we simply haven't declared it yet. Key indicators such as consumer credit stress, declining real wages, and weakening manufacturing data point toward underlying deterioration.
If these trends persist and are met with a market correction, a depression scenario—characterized by persistent unemployment and GDP shrinkage—is not out of the question.
📅 Prediction: The Correction Begins Tomorrow June 13, 2025
Our forecast is bold and hopefully super wrong: market correction will begin on Friday, June 13, 2025. The combination of overvalued equities, rising economic pain, and worsening global trade tensions creates a perfect storm for a downward summer spiral.
Expect:
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S&P 500 to drop 10–15% over the next few months
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Commodities to remain volatile
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Treasury yields to spike briefly, then fall
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A rise in safe-haven buying (gold above all)
📌 Final Thought: Reality Always Wins
For months, markets have ignored economic gravity. But economic fundamentals always reassert themselves. You can inflate asset prices, but you can’t ignore shrinking demand, dislocated labor markets, and trade policies that act like economic tourniquets.
Winter is coming this summer. Be ready. Diversify.
www.creatix.one
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