Trump down 74%. Recession by the Summer? A king already?

March 26. 2025

Trump is Down 74%: How Much Lower Can DJT Go?

One year after peaking on high expectations, the Trump Media & Technology Company stock (DJT) has left its retail investors deep in the red.

Exactly one year ago, on March 26, 2024, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) hit its all-time high: $79.38 per share. It was a euphoric moment for Trump supporters and investors who saw DJT as both a business opportunity and a political statement.

Today, a year later, on March 26, 2025, DJT is trading at just $20.94, representing a staggering 74% collapse from its peak. For those who bought into the hype, the decline has been more than just financial — it’s been a test of loyalty, patience, and belief in the myth of Trump's business acumen.

📉 From Promise to Plummet

When DJT debuted on the Nasdaq following its long-delayed merger with Digital World Acquisition Corp. in March 2024, the stock took off. Retail traders, many self-identified as Trump supporters, poured in — fueled by enthusiasm, ideology, and hopes of striking it rich.

Trump, the self-proclaimed business genius, was now helming a publicly traded company under his own name. Surely this would be the next Facebook… or at least the next Fox.

But reality struck hard and fast. After the initial sugar high, DJT entered a long, painful decline.

📊 What Went Wrong?

Overvaluation and Hype:
DJT’s meteoric rise had little to do with financial fundamentals. The company behind Truth Social had minimal revenue, no profit, and limited user growth. The valuation was driven almost entirely by Trump branding and retail hype — a setup with a short shelf life.
Lack of Institutional Interest:
Wall Street largely stayed away. Analysts raised red flags early. Without institutional investors to stabilize the price, retail sentiment became the sole driver — and it wasn’t sustainable. To this date, most institutional investors are deeply skeptical and doubtful about the business prospects of. the Trump Media company.
Execution Failures:
Trump Media failed to deliver on promises of explosive growth, technological innovation, and monetization. Truth Social remains a niche platform with limited reach beyond its political echo chamber. The company has promised ventures into the crypto arena, which so far have not produced any tangible results. As recent as yesterday, the stock rose almost 10% on announcements of a partnership with Crypto.com. Today, the stock was down 5%.
Legal and Political Headwinds:
Trump’s ongoing presidency leaves him about zero time available to dedicated to the Trump Media company. His sons and surrogates are not as good salespersons as the old man. Trump is doing a fine job as the King of Media from the White House, but that success in getting attention is not translating into any meaningful advertising revenue for the Trump Media & Technology Company.
Side Deals Hidden at Plain Sight. Many of us thought that Trump world could use the DJT stock as a way to funnel money into the President's hands. Along came Elon Musk and maybe filled that brokerage gap. Tesla, Space X, and Starlink's government contracts may prove easier vehicles for shifting funding in the far right direction.

💸 A Painful Lesson in Politics and Portfolios

For many retail investors, DJT wasn’t just a stock — it was a statement. But as the stock cratered, so has the statement. This has been a harsh reminder that ideological hype and promises aren’t a substitute for results.

What’s worse: those who bought near the peak and held on may never recover their investment unless the company stages a dramatic — and unlikely — turnaround.

At the Creatix investment desk, we are down 60% on DJT and have zero expectations of getting even, much less gaining anything on the failed "investment" other than the lesson learned and the loser bragging rights.

🔮 How Much Lower Can DJT Go?

In theory, it can go down to zero. At $20.94, the stock still carries a valuation that far exceeds its actual business performance. If revenue stagnates, user growth flatlines, or Trump Media burns through cash without results, DJT could fall much further. DJT can become a penny stock, but will most likely keep surviving in a comatose state as we all wait for a Trump miracle. We're all primates.

In sum, a year ago, in March 2024, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (ticker: DJT) experienced a significant surge in its stock price, primarily due to the completion of its merger with Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC). This merger, finalized on March 25, 2024, allowed Trump Media to become a publicly traded entity on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the DJT ticker. The announcement of the merger's completion led to heightened investor interest and a substantial increase in stock value.

Following its Nasdaq debut, DJT shares continued to climb, with the stock rising over 30% in the first two days of trading. This momentum was largely driven by retail investors, including supporters of former President Donald Trump, who viewed the company as a speculative investment tied to his political influence.

In the last 12 months, the DJT stock is down 74%. Nobody knows how much lower can the stock go and no one has a strong theory of why it should go higher. Is DJT just another Trump failure?

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Recent data indicates a significant decline in U.S. consumer confidence, which has had a notable impact on the stock market.

Decline in Consumer Confidence:

The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index fell by 7.2 points in March to 92.9, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline and reaching its lowest level since January 2021.
The Expectations Index, reflecting consumers' short-term outlook, dropped to 65.2, the lowest in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a forthcoming recession.

Impact on the Stock Market:

Despite the decline in consumer confidence, the stock market showed resilience, with major indices closing higher on March 25, 2025. Everyone is waiting for tax cuts and deregulation.
Investors appeared to focus on potential tariff exemptions and other economic data, which may have mitigated the negative sentiment from the consumer confidence report.

While the stock market has demonstrated short-term resilience, the sustained decline in consumer confidence underscores underlying economic concerns that may influence future market performance.

Factors Contributing to Diminished Confidence:

Inflationary Pressures: Americans are increasingly concerned about rising prices, particularly for essential goods like food and energy. Despite assurances from the administration, many consumers report that costs continue to escalate, eroding purchasing power and financial stability. Gasoline prices have been coming down, but what about those eggs? The price of eggs!
Trade Policy Uncertainty. You never know when the next tweet will come and how it will wreck the economy. The administration's inconsistent tariff strategies have introduced volatility into the economy. While supposedly intended to protect domestic industries, these measures have often led to retaliatory actions from other countries, disrupting supply chains, increasing costs, and creating a huge mess. Make no mistake, this is a strategy and will continue for as long as the president lives. This is why Creatix recommends using market prices and adding a "Trump PTSD" ("Presidential Tariff Surcharge Debit") to your prices.
Perceived Policy Inconsistencies: A Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates that a majority of Americans view the president's economic actions as erratic. 70% of Americans believe that tariffs will lead to higher prices, and only 41% think the current economic policies will yield long-term benefits.

Conclusion:

The "America First" economic policies, characterized by protectionist trade measures and a focus on domestic industry revitalization, have not yielded the anticipated benefits for many Americans. Instead, these strategies have contributed to economic uncertainty, rising inflation, and diminished public confidence. As consumer sentiment continues to wane, there is an urgent need for policy adjustments that address these concerns and promote sustainable economic growth. Can someone let the King know?

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Absolutely — here's a sharp, satirical, and thought-provoking essay that hits on the theme of selective outrage and partisan double standards:

The Art of the Loyalty Deal: Partisan Enforcement

Imagine, just for a moment, that the Biden administration accidentally texted out classified military strike plans — to a journalist. Not leaked through a backchannel. Not whispered to a reporter over drinks. But literally sent via Signal, a non-government, unauthorized, group chat application, with classified military secrets spilled out.

Now imagine the fallout.

Fox News would run wall-to-wall coverage for weeks. Congressional Republicans would demand impeachment. Kevin McCarthy would be holding a press conference next to a stack of binders labeled “Biden’s Betrayal.” Senator Josh Hawley would tweet the word “treason” before sunrise. Special counsels would be appointed, subpoenas would fly, and "lock them up" chants would echo across CPAC.

There would be no room for context. No space for nuance. It would be painted as the most dangerous national security breach since Benedict Arnold. Blood pressure medication sales would skyrocket as the elderly Fox News audience fell trap to the supposed outrage and National Security crisis. They would want the heads on a plate, holding everyone responsible and accountable to honor law and order and the sacred National security.

🎯 But What If It’s Your Guy? The Nothingburger Doctrine

Now flip the script.

When it was a Trump administration official who accidentally included a journalist in a Signal group chat about live military operations in Yemen — with the Vice President, Secretary of Defense, and National Security Advisor all participating — the reaction was… nothing. No hearings. No subpoenas. No urgent calls to protect sources and methods. Just silence — or at most, a shoulder shrug from the MAGA echo chamber, followed by a condescending “So what? It was encrypted."

This is what we might call the “Nothingburger Doctrine.” If your team screws up, downplay it. Mock anyone who expresses concern. Call it fake news. Add fries and ketchup and change the subject.

🍔 Loyalty Through Privileged and Inconsistent Law Enforcement

This isn’t just hypocrisy. It’s a strategy — and frankly, a brilliant one. Our king doesn’t demand competence. He demands loyalty. And loyalty isn’t earned through "merit" — it’s earned through tribal defense and taking care of your people in good and bad times.

If someone on your team leaks classified info? They’re a patriot, or they “made an honest mistake.”

If the other side does it? They’re criminals, traitors, and should be marched in front of a firing squad of congressional hearings.

This double standard isn’t a flaw. It’s the feature that binds the tribal team together. Because nothing solidifies a political movement like shared outrage at the other and shared absolution of the self.

🧠 The Implications for Democracy

This kind of "third world" enforcement of rules — privileged and inconsistent — isn’t just about the media cycle. It has real-world consequences.

It erodes trust in institutions. It teaches officials that the only real sin is getting caught while being a liberal or not a loyalist to the king. It makes accountability a partisan coin flip. And it tells the American people that rules are optional — depending on your hat color and loyalty. Quite frankly, it's a brilliant strategy as we create a new country not tied to the handcuffs of democratic institutions.

In this new country, the United States of Trump and Musk, national security isn't sacred; it’s situational. The same breach that warrants panic on Monday becomes a meme by Tuesday, as long as it's your guy who breached the law.

🔚 Final Thought: Heads on a Plate — or a Nothing Burger with Fries?

It all depends on the party or tribal affiliation and loyalty of the offender. This not only applies to politics, but to everything else. Being able to realize the different approaches we all take depending on the context and our own convenience is essential for understanding how primitive and simple we are at the core. We're all primates. Don't take yourself too seriously. Don't let the placebo of religion to cloud your judgement. Have fun. Enjoy. Business life and the business of life are easier when you have sufficient business elligence.

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Absolutely — here's a bold, well-structured article that breaks down the forecasted recession in the context of Trump’s economic policies:

Recession by Summer: Trumping the Economy to Stage a Crisis

Deportations, tariffs, and chaos are a recipe for an economic crisis — and that might be exactly the point.

Brace yourself. Consider yourself warned. Current trends will continue. The U.S. economy is heading into a recession by summer 2025 — and not by accident, but by political design.

While official data still paints a picture of sluggish growth, the writing is on the wall. From consumer confidence tanking to business investment freezing up, warning lights are flashing across the dashboard. And the cause? Look no further than the chaotic, contradictory economic policies of our President or King.

This isn’t a normal or cyclical downturn. It’s a manufactured crisis, built through a toxic mix of immigration crackdowns, tariff threats, and economic terrorism by unpredictability.

📉 What Is a Recession?

At its core, a recession is a period of declining economic activity — typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. But the symptoms show up well before the stats are official:

Slowing job growth
Reduced consumer spending
Falling business investment
Plunging consumer and CEO confidence

And we’re seeing all of that now.

🧱 The Trump Recession Playbook

Let’s break down why Trump’s policies are steering us toward contraction:

1. Mass Deportations = Labor Shock

Trump has vowed sweeping immigration crackdowns, and his administration has already begun large-scale deportations.

The result? A double blow:

Less labor: Immigrants make up huge portions of key sectors — agriculture, hospitality, construction, and logistics. Fewer workers = lower output.
Less consumption: Immigrants don’t just produce — they consume. They rent homes, buy food, pay taxes, and spend in their communities.

Deportations shrink both economic supply and demand.

2. Tariffs = Inflation

Trump’s tariff threats — on everything from Chinese goods to Mexican and Canadian imports — are fueling fears of inflationary shockwaves.

So far, we haven’t seen full-scale price spikes. Why? Because Trump keeps announcing tariffs... and then backing off. This back-and-forth delays the inflation — but the moment tariffs actually stick, costs for everything from electronics to groceries to auto parts will spike.

Higher input costs + wage pressure + trade disruptions = stagflation risk (stagnant growth + high inflation).

3. Uncertainty = Paralysis

Perhaps the most damaging element is strategic unpredictability.

CEOs are freezing hiring and delaying capital spending.
Small businesses are hoarding cash instead of investing.
Global companies are rethinking U.S. supply chains.

Why? Because economic policy is now driven by replacement testosterone mood swings and social media tweets. Today it’s tariffs. Tomorrow it’s tax cuts. Then it’s deportations, then “a big beautiful deal.”

Business leaders can’t plan a quarterly strategy when the future depends on the next hormonal tweet of the president and King of All Media.

🎯 The Strategy Behind the Chaos

This isn’t just senile incompetence of an old grandpa. It’s intentional and part of an authoritarian playbook. All dictators rise in times of crises. We are manufacturing crises to later claim that only the king can fix them. Everything is so "bad" that only giving more powers to the strongman will fix it.

It’s the classic strongman move:

Create chaos.
Blame others.
Present yourself as the christ savior.

We’ve seen this before throughout history. This may be fairly new in our country, but is common all around the world. Maybe we're not that exceptional and will fall —or already did -- into the hands of a dictator and wannabe king. So? What should we do? Rejoice. Long live the King! Party like it's New Year's Eve. There are so many reasons to celebrate and rejoice. There are so many people in need of guidance and help. Let's guide and help. It's fun and rewarding.

📉 What Comes Next?

If current trends hold, expect:

GDP contraction by Q2 or Q3
Business closures in labor-strapped industries
Inflation spikes from delayed tariffs
Market volatility from policy whiplash
A new wave of layoffs as planning freezes

And through it all, expect Trump to blame the Fed, Democrats, immigrants, or globalists — anyone but himself. Expect all of us to tell you that believing in Trump is the only thing we can do. Let's give him more power, let's have him consolidate all power in him and a handful of patriots who can save us from evil. Suffering is the pathway to salvation. Rejoice in the spirit of salvation.

🧠 Final Thought: The Recession Is the Feature, Not the Bug

This isn’t just bad policy. It’s a deliberate campaign to break the economy — and then sell the illusion of repair. Trump's economy is not failing in spite of his strategy. It’s failing because of it.

And when the recession hits this summer, be ready to see the king who caused tell us: “Only I can fix it.” Let Fox News agree and explain it to all retirees and rednecks. Let's be a happy country again. Have a few Bud Lights --in moderation-- watch some sports and enjoy life. Life is good. It's also very short and you only live one. Don't stress. Finesse.

Absolutely — here’s a compelling and data-backed web article draft exploring the scale and economic consequences of Trump’s proposed 40% federal workforce cut:

Trump’s 40% Federal Job Cut Will Prolong The Recession

Slashing over a million government jobs won’t just shrink government — it may collapse the broader economy.

Our King has openly committed to firing up to 40% of the federal workforce. It’s part of his broader vision to “dismantle the deep state” and dramatically shrink Washington’s power.

But beyond the political rhetoric, there’s a staggering economic reality: 3 million federal employees work across the United States — from border agents and air traffic controllers to scientists, veterans' healthcare workers, and Social Security administrators.

Cutting 40% of them means eliminating 1.2 million jobs. Let that sink in: 1.2 million jobs — gone.

And that’s just the beginning of the economic domino effect.

🔄 The Numbers Behind the Cut

Total federal workforce: ~3,000,000 employees
Trump’s proposed cut: 40%
Jobs lost: 1.2 million public sector workers
Immediate effect: $120–$160 billion in lost wages and benefits annually
Downstream impact: Millions more affected in the private sector — contractors, vendors, service providers, and local economies

💥 A Domino Effect Across the Entire Economy

This isn’t just a Washington, D.C. problem. Federal employees work in every single state, supporting rural hospitals, disaster recovery, veterans’ services, and infrastructure projects. Cutting them triggers economic contraction at every level:

Mass Unemployment:
Instantly removing over 1 million jobs floods the job market with displaced workers — while simultaneously reducing consumer spending.
Reduced Local Spending:
Laid-off workers spend less at restaurants, gas stations, retail stores, and on housing. Local economies — especially in states with large federal installations — get hit hard.
Private Sector Shockwaves:
Contractors who depend on federal agencies (think IT services, defense suppliers, construction firms) will cut staff too. The private sector could lose another 500,000 to 1 million jobs.
Recessionary Spiral:
Less income → less spending → lower business revenues → more layoffs → declining GDP. That’s a classic recession pattern.

📉 Why This Could Be the Tipping Point

The U.S. economy is already teetering. Consumer confidence is plunging, CEOs are holding back investment, and inflation remains volatile due to tariff threats and immigration crackdowns.

Throwing 1.2 million guaranteed-paycheck workers into unemployment — while destabilizing entire agency functions — could push the economy straight into full-blown recession by mid-to-late 2025.

And let’s be clear: this isn’t a budget-trimming move. It’s a shock therapy strategy designed to fundamentally change the role of government — and at massive economic cost to manufacture an artificial economic crisis for political gain.

⚠️ National Security, Healthcare, and Basic Services at Risk

Beyond the economic consequences, Trump’s plan would gut critical government functions:

Social Security offices would close or experience extreme delays.
Air traffic control and FAA operations would be crippled.
Border security and immigration processing would slow down.
Disaster relief and FEMA operations would stall.
Military logistics and VA services would be strained.

This isn’t just belt-tightening — it’s amputating entire limbs from the federal structure. These jobs will be consolidated under huge contracts. Maybe you have heard about kickbacks?

🎯 Final Thought: Firing America Into a Recession

Trump’s 40% federal job cut isn’t just radical. It’s economically catastrophic.

In a fragile economic climate, such a move would:

Deepen unemployment
Trigger recessionary dynamics
Undermine trust in public institutions
And weaken the very fabric of the U.S. economy

The irony? For a man who built his brand on jobs and growth, this policy may end up being one of the most anti-growth decisions in modern American history.

The plan? Create a huge crisis that only a dictator can fix. Hungry and angry Americans will rush to eliminate the Constitution and cede all powers to a king that can save us, feed us, and keep us entertained.

Now you know it. Enjoy.

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