We're still doing well thanks to the COVID19 stimulus. In a couple of months, pain will set in.
Although no one knows what will happen to the economy in the next couple of years, it's safe to say that we are still doing relatively well. Make no mistake. We are where we are (doing relatively well) because of the $5.5 trillion spent (or invested) in the economy by the U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve during the COVID-19 pandemic.
You can think of COVID-19 as World War III. But this time, the enemy wasn’t a foreign military power—it was an invisible virus. And the U.S. emerged victorious in this unconventional war, not with tanks and missiles, but with fiscal firepower and a stunning leap in medical technology: the COVID-19 vaccines.
This triumph, however, came after highly complex political and economic dynamics. President Trump, despite having early intelligence reports warning of the virus’s potential impact, chose to dismiss them. Trump insisted the virus was a hoax that would vanish on its own. Papa Trump underestimated the virus, disregarded scientific advice, and overestimated his gut instincts. That miscalculation cost millions of lives, and cost him the presidency. Joe Biden and the Democrats defeated Trump seizing the opportunity to score politically after Trump's fumble of the COVID19 ball.
The Biden administration launched a historic rescue of the American economy. Their strategy, although super expensive and liberal, worked. The economy didn’t just recover—it expanded. It was a progressive victory, driven by massive public investment, a massive push for DEI, and semi open borders. Conservatives and the MAGA movement loathed it. But there is no denying its effectiveness.
A centerpiece of Biden’s economic revival was a nationwide embrace of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI). DEI may be controversial and costly, but it adds a heck of a lot of jobs by essentially forcing industry and government to expand by hiring women and nonwhite men. These initiatives helped women and historically disadvantaged groups access higher paying jobs. Crucially, this wasn’t about zero-sum redistribution. DEI helped everyone—even as it preserved the existing dominance of white male leadership in business and government. The Biden boom was a rare moment in American history: a rising tide that truly lifted all boats.
Another key to this miracle economy was immigration. Under Biden’s watch, the U.S. kept its borders open to skilled, motivated labor from Latin America. These workers filled critical shortages, boosted productivity, and added dynamism to the labor market. Open borders weren’t a liability—they were an economic and political strategy.
Yet the miracle had its limits. Biden’s age became an issue. The rapid browning of America became a bigger issue poking our racist instincts like never since Obama. Biden appeared frail as public concern about his cognitive health grew. Trump, energized by populist rage and economic unease, looked poised to reclaim power. Kamala Harris, a historic candidate as the first Black and Indian-American woman to top a major ticket, represented continuity with Biden. But in a country still grappling with race, gender, and tradition, she wasn’t strong enough to hold the center. Democrats, by nominating her, excited their liberal base but lost independents in all key battleground states.
All eyes turned to the battleground states—the handful of swing territories that decide elections for the rest of the country. And they overwhelmingly turned to Trump. Now, Trump is back in office with a mandate to dismantle the very economic system that pulled the country out of the COVID crisis. The liberal-progressive economic model of DEI expansion, open borders, and globalized free trade is on the MAGA chopping block for good.
MAGA promises greatness, but not without sacrifice. No one said that making America great again would be free. Trump’s agenda of economic nationalism will require painful tradeoffs: fewer immigrants, less reliance on global supply chains, and a rollback of expansive DEI hiring policies. America will seek self-sufficiency, but it won’t be free. It will lead to a significantly smaller economy. The transition will hurt. Yet, no pain, no gain.
In the MAGA economic and political pain lies possibility of becoming stronger. What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. No pain, no gain. It is time to stop complaining and start winning. There are enormous opportunities on the horizon as the country rewrites the rules of its economy to prioritize American workers, American products, and American strength.
MAGA will reshape the economy. The current economic foundation, reinforced during the pandemic with a $5.5 trillion investment, medical breakthroughs, inclusive hiring and bold immigration policies—will become history in some (not all) history books. The next chapter will be different, but it begins with the hard-earned lessons and unlikely triumphs of the last one. The best is yet to come. Hold tight. Take care of yourself and your loved ones. Enjoy the rise. Nothing lasts forever.
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How Much Was the Fiscal Stimulus in Response to COVID19?
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve implemented extensive fiscal and monetary measures to stabilize the economy. These interventions spanned from March 2020, when the pandemic was declared, until the official end of the federal public health emergency in May 2023.
U.S. Government Fiscal Stimulus:
The federal government enacted several major relief packages totaling approximately $5.5 trillion:
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Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act (March 2020): A $2.2 trillion package that provided direct payments to individuals, expanded unemployment benefits, and offered loans to businesses.
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Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021 (December 2020): This $2.3 trillion spending bill included $900 billion dedicated to COVID-19 relief, such as additional stimulus checks and support for small businesses.
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American Rescue Plan Act (March 2021): A $1.9 trillion package that extended unemployment benefits, issued further direct payments, and allocated funds for vaccine distribution and state and local governments.
These packages funded various initiatives, including three rounds of Economic Impact Payments (stimulus checks) totaling approximately $814 billion, with over 476 million payments distributed to households.
Federal Reserve Monetary Actions:
The Federal Reserve implemented several measures to support financial markets and the economy:
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Interest Rate Reductions: Lowered the federal funds rate to near zero to encourage borrowing and investment.
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Quantitative Easing: Purchased large quantities of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to inject liquidity into the financial system.
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Lending Programs: Established facilities to support the flow of credit to households, businesses, and municipalities.
While these actions involved significant financial commitments, the exact monetary value fluctuated based on economic conditions and program utilization.
In summary, from March 2020 through May 2023, the combined efforts of the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve injected approximately $5.5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, along with substantial monetary interventions, to mitigate the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Why were the Paycheck Protection Program funds called "loans"?
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), established in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, provided approximately $800 billion in forgivable loans to small businesses. As of July 4, 2022, the Small Business Administration (SBA) reported issuing over 11.47 million loans totaling $792.6 billion. The program was designed to help businesses maintain their workforce during the economic disruptions caused by the pandemic.
✅ PPP Loans: Loans in Name, Grants in Practice
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What they were called: Officially, they were loans issued by the Small Business Administration (SBA) under the Paycheck Protection Program.
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What happened in reality: Most of these loans were forgiven in full if businesses met certain conditions—primarily using the funds for payroll, rent, and utilities.
👉 Over 90% of PPP loans (totaling $790+ billion) were ultimately forgiven, meaning they functioned as grants in all but name.
🧐 So, were they really loans?
Technically:
Yes, they were loans with terms and forgiveness criteria attached.
Practically:
No. Since the vast majority didn’t have to be repaid, and forgiveness was broadly applied (often automatically), they acted more like grants or direct subsidies.
🧾 Why were they structured this way?
Calling them "loans" gave the program a legal and administrative framework for distribution and oversight under the SBA. It also created a mechanism to:
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Enforce conditions (like keeping employees on payroll)
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Add a layer of accountability (even if lightly enforced)
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Avoid immediate classification as "government spending" in certain budget contexts
🧠 Bottom Line:
Calling them “loans” is technically correct but misleading in practice.
They were more accurately conditional grants or business subsidies.
What was today's miracle in the stock market?
This morning we all thought that today was going to be another White Monday. That is what we call the Mondays when the market gets crushed by the realities of the MAGA economy that is just beginning.
However, today, on Monday, March 31, 2025, U.S. stock markets experienced a rebound, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.6% to close at 5,611.85, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1% to end at 42,001.76. According to analysts, this recovery was driven by several factors:
1. Technical Indicators: The S&P 500 exhibited a bullish "double bottom" pattern, suggesting a potential end to the recent downtrend and the onset of an uptrend. This technical signal boosted investor confidence, contributing to the market's upward momentum.
2. Sector Performance: Gains in consumer staples, financials, materials, and energy sectors supported the market's rise. Notably, Discover Financial Services surged 7.5% following news about its interim CEO remaining until the completion of its acquisition by Capital One Financial, whose shares also rose by 3.3%.
3. Individual Stock Contributions: Specific stocks significantly influenced the indices. Amgen and IBM led the Dow's advance, with Amgen's stock rising by 2.0% and IBM's by 1.9%, collectively contributing approximately 66 points to the Dow's overall gain.
Despite these positive movements, investor sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding impending tariffs and their potential economic impact. The Nasdaq Composite slightly declined by 0.1%, closing at 17,299.29, reflecting ongoing volatility in the technology sector.
What is Rattling the Markets?
President Donald Trump's proposed "reciprocal tariffs" have sparked significant concerns among economists and global leaders. These tariffs aim to match the duties that other countries impose on U.S. exports, potentially leading to increased costs for imported goods and strained international relations. Critics fear that such measures could trigger a global trade war, disrupt supply chains, and increase prices for consumers, potentially leading to a recession in the U.S. and a slowdown in global economic growth.
The "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement has expressed strong opposition to the current global trade system. Existing trade agreements and globalization have led to job losses in the U.S., particularly in manufacturing sectors, and have suppressed wages. Many believe that globalization has disproportionately benefited other countries, especially China, at the expense of American workers and to the detriment of our national defense.
In summary, the MAGA movement's discontent with the current trade system stems from the perception that globalization and existing trade agreements have harmed American industries and workers, fueling support for policies like reciprocal tariffs aimed at protecting domestic interests.
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