January 1, 2025
Will 2025 beat 2024 in S&P return? This is what history suggests.
Not no, but hell no. In the history of the Standard and Poor's index since 1923, after two straight years of gains over 20% there has never been a third year that beats the preceding year. The future has not been created yet. Past performance is not controlling on future performance. However, human history tends to repeat itself in a cyclical manner over time because humans have a set range of emotions conducive of repetitive behavior under similar circumstances.
The S&P 500 had a stellar performance in both 2024 and 2023, with respective returns of 24.01% and 26.29%. It is highly unlikely that the S&P 500 in 2025 can outperform 2024.
In the past 100 years. the S&P has never had a third straight year beating two previous years with returns over 20%. Will 2025 be different? Can AI and the Trump-Musk bromance change the historical pattern? We doubt it. We think that 2025 will underperform when compared to 2024.
What are the annual rates of return of the S&P?
Below are the annual rates of return from 2024 through 1923.
2021 28.71%
| 1975 37.201927 37.10%
1926 11.51%
1925 25.83%
1924 27.10%
1923 5.45%
What is the average annual return of the S&P?
The average S&P return from 1923 through 2024 is about 12.5%.
What will be the annual return of the S&P 500 in 2025?
No one knows. The future has not been created yet. If we are lucky, the &P 500 will have an average return in 2025. Adding 12.5% on top of the consecutive gains of 2023 and 2024 would be good news. The S&P 500 would close in December 31, 2025 at around 6,600.
Will 2025 be the best year ever for the stock market?
Hopefully not. We don't want to be too greedy because sooner or later there will be a correction. The steeper and higher the gains, the deeper and lower the losses. Slow and stead wins the race. 2023 and 2024 were awesome years. Hitting a 12% return in 2025 would be ideal and as such it is highly unlikely because ideal scenarios rarely materialize in real life, especially in the investing world.
Will 2025 be a terrible year for the stock market?
Our prediction is that 2025 will be a roller coaster year for the stock market with steep climbs and fast declines. There will be a few months where the Trump-Musk bromance and the proxy presidency of Elon Musk (a naturalized U.S. citizen that could not be president for not being a natural born citizen) will seem miraculously good, followed by other periods where everything will look like a snake oil scam. There will be historical gains in AI and crypto followed by sharp corrections. There will be political unrest as many feel left behind and support Democrats to retake Congress in 2026 to impeach Trump a third time.
What will happen in the stock market in 2025?
Again, no one knows because the future has not been created yet. No one knows what will happen. There are more variables that we can currently account for including unknown unknowns. Regardless, there are only three possibilities for the stock market in 2025. It can go up, stay the same, or or down. It's what we call "USD" in our business intelligence lessons. It stands for up-same-down (USD). If you are smart, you can use your intelligence to leverage the intelligence of others to prepare for strategically and proactively for each scenario.
Creatix is a business intelligence matrix. A matrix is a place or platform where things are created. To create is to transform. Creatix transforms general information into business intelligence. On the web at www.creaatix.one.
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