September 30, 2024
What will the future bring?
That's a tricky question. No one knows for sure because the future has not been created yet. Predicting the future is not as straightforward as forecasting the weather. The same principles apply, but there are far too many variables involved. We need for artificial intelligence (AI) to integrate all relevant data and make more accurate forecasts of future human-driven events. Eventually, we will get there and that is what the future will bring. The future will bring more and more AI. In turn, AI will help humans produce more and more. There will be more of everything.
Artificial intelligence (AI) will be the defining technology of the rest of the 21st century.
From now on, during the rest of your life, you will witness the expansion of AI. Intelligent computer programs will gradually penetrate every single aspect of human life. This will eventually lead to transhumanism, but that is millennia away from now. We're still at the very beginning of the AI revolution. There are many things that you can do today to secure future prosperity. We'll mention those after running a brief history note.
History repeats itself.
- Agricultural Revolution. Humans are predictable creatures of comfort. About 12,000 years ago, our ancestors began the rolling out of the Agricultural Revolution. Agriculture is still out there because it proved more convenient than only hunting and gathering. Agriculture is still essential for human survival. The practice of agriculture is still growing more and more.
- Industrial Revolution. About 265 years ago, our ancestors invented machines and began the Industrial Revolution. Machines are still out there because they are more convenient that human or animal labor. Machines are still essential for human survival. The use of machines is still growing more and more.
- Information Era. About 80 years ago, humans invented computers and began the Information Era. Computers are still out there because they proved more convenient than human data processing and human computation. Computers are essential for human survival. The use of computers is still growing more and more.
- AI Revolution. In the next 80 years, humans will witness and experience the roll out of intelligent computers, the AI Revolution. AI will be out there everywhere because it will be more convenient than standard computer programming. AI will become essential for human survival. The use of AI will continue growing more and more.
AI computers that can mimic and surpass human intelligence will allow humans to create more. AI will help humans do more of everything. You can bet that in the next decades, there will be more of everything.
Outsourcing Intelligence and Decision-Making to Computers
Increasingly, humans will outsource intelligence to their computers. AI decision-making, both automated and suggested, will gradually become the norm. This will prevail because it will prove more convenient for everyone involved. Every year there will be increased reliance on AI to either make or suggest all decisions. For example, instead of figuring out emotionally for whom to vote in the elections, humans will ask the many different AI applications who should they vote for and why.
Humans are already accustomed to using machines for everything. The difference with AI is that humans will use machines to think for them and make decisions for them. From the most mundane to the most profound questions, humans will rely on AI for advice and suggestions. From what to wear to whom to date or marry; from where to live, where to work, how to invest, whom to vote for, and so on and so forth, humans will rely more and more on AI.
How did we get here? The "creatix" explanation
The universe can be seen as a creative matrix or "creatix". A matrix is a place or platform where things are created. To create is to transform. Almost everything in this universe is energy (i.e. the capacity to do work). Almost everything in this universe is the capacity to do work being "worked up" or transformed. Input is processed and transformed into output, which in turn is processed as further input to be transformed into further output and so on and so forth, forward in time, never backwards.
There's no magic in this universe. Everything is work. Everything is energy being transformed. Energy is transformed (it's "worked up") into four fundamental forces that lead to the formation of matter and the different combinations and creations responsible for life and everything else in the universe.
Stars, Planets, and Cells ("SPCs")
Stars, planets, and cells ("SPCs") are the master creations of the universe as far as life is concerned.
Stars
Stars are gravitational clusters of hydrogen atoms that end up becoming versatile factories of heat, light, and elements.
Gravity collects and presses hydrogen atoms together forcing the fusion of hydrogen atom pairs into single helium atoms. Since one helium atom is slightly more stable than two separate hydrogen atoms, there is some remnant energy that is released in the fusion process in the form of radiation. That remnant radiation that is emitted as a result of the fusion of hydrogen into helium at the core of a star is the light and heat generated by the star.
Once stars fuse all hydrogen into helium, gravity keeps pressing and the star begins to fuse helium atoms into heavier elements. At some point in time, the star becomes too heavy and implodes. The inward pressure puts too much mass together causing the repulsion of similarly charged particles, which eventually makes the star explode. The explosion creates so much heat and pressure that it releases debris full of heavy elements.
Planets
Gravity then collects some of that star dust or heavy cosmic debris to form the celestial bodies called planets. These planets begin to gravitate around stars, which gives them varying degrees of heat and light depending on the distance and gravitational path.
At least in one planet in an otherwise ordinary corner of the universe, the right conditions emerged for the formation of an atmosphere and a versatile molecule formed by two atoms of hydrogen and one of oxygen, which is known as water. In water or in connection with water, electromagnetism was also able to combine atoms of carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, and nitrogen (CHON) into organic compounds.
Some organic compounds on Earth turned out to be polymers (long molecules) or strings of amino acids (RNA and DNA) that do at least two super interesting things: (i) serve as electromagnetic templates for the assembly of other amino acid compounds called proteins; and (ii) self-replicate upon accumulating or consuming similar organic matter.
Cells
When these self-replicating protein factories (RNA and DNA) got trapped or encapsulated inside watery bubbles enclosed by a fatty membrane or wall, the first cells were formed. The cells become self-replicating shelters of self-replicating protein-building machinery (RNA, DNA, and associated organelles). Cells absorb nutrients from the external environment and process it into cellular energy. Nutrition makes cells grow, and growth splits one cell into two, leading to exponential replication.
Cells, having their own enclosed internal environment, can interact with their surrounding external environment. Cells process external stimuli as input for the internal formation of output, which can then be further processed inside the cell as more output. Cells communicate and exchange information (input and output) between one another. Cell form clusters that are called tissue, which form organs, which form systems, which form organisms.
Cells specialize by function. Some cells specialize in sensing changes, both internal and external changes. Changes cause regulatory reactions within cells. The reactions that move life forward move forward with life. That is, whatever works works (www). That process is referred to as natural selection. Along the way, with the passage of time and environmental changes there are adaptations and mutations in reactions. Those changes are referred to as evolution.
After a little over four billion years of evolution and natural selection, the organic process of life got us to where we are now. Earth is inhabited by zillions of cellular networks processing all sorts of stimuli into output.
Advanced organisms respond to a complex yet conceptually simple attraction and repulsion mechanism; pain / pain relief mechanism. Biological intelligence (i.e. the problem-solving ability of biological cellular networks) is a byproduct of the pain / pain relief mechanism. Pain is a multidimensional perception that controls human and animal behavior. Everything that humans and other animals do can be easily explained by the pain / pain relief mechanism of life.
Seeking to avoid pain and obtaining pain relief led humans to create and develop different technologies (tools and methods) over time. The greatest human inventions of all time may be said to be language (including mathematics), fiction (including mythology and money), and science (including computers). Progress began with fiction, continued with science, and will continue with the realization of science fiction.
Today's AI is yesterday's science fiction.
Chances are that the future will "bring" (humans and AI will create) more realization of science fiction. Artificial intelligence refers to computers with the capacity to mimic and surpass human intelligence. In the next 80 years, AI will help humans create more and more of everything.
Further into the future, chances are that transhumanism, the ultimate science fiction, will come true. We are talking about next generation of "humans" that are no longer subject to the constraints of biology and that are liberated by AI technology.
What can you do today to prepare for tomorrow?
Keep learning daily and investing in yourself by developing valuable skills and by acquiring property rights that may increase in value over time.
In closing, a quick note about the new poster child of the AI bubble. It is no longer NVIDIA. The new poster child of the AI bubble is Palantir.
Palantir Technologies is a software company that develops artificial intelligence (AI) applications for integrating and analyzing big data. Palantir is the latest craze in the AI bubble. Palantir's share price has quadrupled in the last two years, rising from about $8 per share at the end of September in 2022 to a little over $37 per share today. It is one of the most expensive AI stocks, trading at 219 times times earnings. That is, if you buy the share today, you are paying $219 for every dollar Palantir makes. You would do it betting on the company as a growth stock. You will hope that the company keeps growing and increasing market share, with the share prices continue going up as earnings also rise, eventually lowering the price/earnings ratio.
Palantir's products include Palantir Gotham, Palantir Apollo, and Palantir Foundry.
Palantir Gotham provides AI decision-making advice to the intelligence agencies and military forces. The AI software analyzes complex data to make or recommend decisions on real-time in dynamic environments to handle sensitive situations like intelligence gathering for counter-terrorism and military strikes. It integrates data from multiple sources, including sensor feeds, to create a unified operational picture.
Palantir Apollo focuses on automating software deployment across various environments. Facilitates seamless software deployment across different cloud platforms, on-premise systems, and even air-gapped environments. Aims to streamline the deployment process, minimizing manual intervention and ensuring consistent software updates.
Palantir Foundry is a data integration and analysis platform for businesses to make operational decisions based on their data across different systems. A data integration and analysis platform for businesses to connect disparate data sources and build complex data models. Enables users to analyze large datasets, visualize insights, and make informed decisions across different business functions. Focuses on data governance and security, allowing organizations to manage access and control over sensitive data.
Companies like NVIDIA, which designs AI computer chips and like Palantir, which designs AI software are examples of the type of AI related companies that will continue appreciating in value over time as we continue the rollout of the AI Revolution.
There is definitely a bubble out there. It will end like the railroad craze and the dotcom bubble. Many companies like NVIDIA and Palantir may lose 90% in value or more. However, the industry itself will continue and appreciating over time.
Since it is impossible to time the market or to pick the exact companies that will win, the best recommendation remains to invest in low cost, well diversified, exchange traded funds (ETFs). Everybody knows that. Now, it is not a bad idea to save some cash on the side to use it when the time is right. Maybe you invest 80% in a low cost diversified ETF and save 20% in cash for bargains to come. Maybe. You do your own research. Do your thing. Don't sweat it unless you're at the gym and you will have a nice refreshing shower afterwards.
Now you know it.
Live well. Die better. Enjoy
www.creatix.one
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